Structured Evidential Argumentation System

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SEAS is a software tool developed for intelligence analysts

That records analytic reasoning and methods

That supports collaborative analysis

Across contemporary and historical situations and analysts

and has broad applicability beyond intelligence analysis

Approach

The survival of an enterprise often rests upon its ability to make correct and timely decisions, despite the complexity and uncertainty of the environment. Because of the difficulty of employing formal methods in this context, decision makers typically resort to informal methods, sacrificing structure and rigor. We have developed a new methodology that retains the ease-of-use, familiarity, and (some of) the free-form nature of informal methods, while benefiting from the rigor, structure, and potential for automation characteristic of formal methods. Our approach aims to foster thoughtful and timely analysis through the introduction of structure, and collaboration through access to the corporate memory of current and past analytic results.

Structured Argumentation

Collective Reasoning

Corporate Memory

Applications

Good candidate applications for SEAS are assessment tasks characterized by the following:

• Based upon opinion rather than fact
• Opinions are supported by evidence i.e., interpreted documents
• Evidence organization and management are key
• Alternative assessments need to be compared and contrasted
• Assessments are collaboratively developed by teams of analysts
• Changes in assessments need to be tracked
• Best practice needs to be captured and reapplied
• Decision makers need to quickly understand conclusions and what drives them
• Need to look back and understand what drove prior correct/incorrect decisions

SEAS argument templates have been developed for a wide range of applications including the following:

National Defense Applications	Commercial Applications
Nation-State Stability Assessment Asymmetric Threat Assessment Assessment of Terrorist Motives Mission Information Preparation Counter Intelligence Assessment Network System Analysis Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment	Project Management Executive Dashboard Competitor Intelligence Fraud Detection Human Resources Grade Assessment Applicant Evaluation Technical Intelligence

Benefits

Faster	Better	Cheaper
Understanding lines-of-reasoning by decision makers by analysts Creating new assessments Individually In collaboration (division of labor) Learning of analytic methods by novices Finding relevant analyses (arguments) and methods (templates) used in the past Understanding the relationship of the new analysis to the old	Promotes use of best practice (templates) and superior results (arguments) Encourages Critical review by others Leveraging other analyst's products (arguments) as supporting evidence Coauthoring (each doing what they do best) Results are more easily and completely assimilated by decision makers at the level of detail desired	Captures corporate knowledge and facilitates reuse; no need to reinvent Asynchronous remote collaboration; fewer meetings Provided as service across current browser clients with no system integration costs Better prioritization of risk leads to better utilization of resources

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SEAS, High SEAS, Structured Evidential Argumentation System, and SRI Early Alert System, are trademarks of SRI International. Copyright © 2000-2008 SRI International, 333 Ravenswood Ave., Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA. All rights reserved. Patent Pending and Unpublished Copyright © 1998-2008, SRI International.