Search |  Contact |  SRI Home Do not follow this link, or your host will be blocked from this site. This is a spider trap. Do not follow this link, or your host will be blocked from this site. This is a spider trap. Do not follow this link, or your host will be blocked from this site. This is a spider trap.A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A ASRI International.  333 Ravenswood Avenue.  Menlo Park, CA 94025-3493. SRI International is a nonprofit corporation.

PRIME: A Predictive Model Development Environment

PRIME  Principal Investigator:  Ian W Harrison

Mailing address:
AI Center
SRI International
333 Ravenswood Avenue
Menlo Park, CA 94025-3493

AIC Program:  Representation and Reasoning

   Project Description

Project Goal

PRIME is a software development environment that enables rapid collaborative model development, rapid model adaptation, model integration/interoperability, and model maintenance. The types of models targeted initially are termed PMESII (political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure perspective) effect models. The tool will allow USAF Air Campaign Planners to predict the effects of a planned set of DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, economic) actions on an entity or site across all the PMESII dimensions.

Background

Using an effects-based approach is seen as central to the transformation efforts underway in America’s armed forces. The effects-based approach, commonly referred to as Effects-Based Operations (EBO), is a methodology for planning, executing, and assessing operations that are designed to create the specific effects necessary to achieve national security objectives. EBO is applicable to the full spectrum of operations, from humanitarian relief to major combat mission, and is applicable at all levels of decision-making: strategic, operational and tactical. EBO focuses on achieving the desired national security outcome, rather than just force-on-force solutions.

PRIME provides one of the three key baseline products, as described in United States Joint Forces Command “Doctrinal Implications of Operational Net Assessment (ONA)”, namely, a Web-based portal to a system-of-systems analysis that examines the adversary’s PMESII systems.

PRIME is a web-based application that allows teams of analysts separated in time and space to collaboratively develop predicted effects models for planned actions on entities or sites.

   Personnel

Name Title E-mail
Harrison, Ian W Alumnus
Lowrance, John D Program Director
Murdock, Janet Computer Scientist
Yeh, Eric Software Engineer

   Software
PRIME
The Probative Rapid Interactive Modeling Environment (PRIME) is a decision-support web application that provides modeling and reasoning capabilities intended to stretch the thinking of analysts and decision makers by producing a forecast of the plausible effects that could result from taking actions in a given situation. The plausibility of each forecast effect is explained by one or more structured arguments.

SEAS: Structured Evidential Argumentation System
SEAS is a tool to aid analysts in reasoning about potential opportunities/crises. It records analytic thinking in structured arguments, provides a collaborative environment in which multiple analysts can simultaneously contribute to arguments, and retains a coproate memory of the evolution of analytic thinking over time.

   Publications
  • Murray, K. and Lowrance, J. and Sharpe, K. and Williams, D. and Gremban, K. and Holloman, K. and Speed, C. and Tynes, R. Toward Culturally Informed Option Awareness for Influence Operations with S-CAT, in Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction (SBP11), Springer, vol. 6589, pp. 2-9, March 2011.  [Details]

  • Murray, K. and Lowrance, J. and Sharpe, K. and Williams, D. and Gremban, K. and Holloman, K. and Speed, C. Capturing Culture and Effects Variables Using Structured Argumentation, in Advances in Cross-Cultural Decision Making, CRC Press, pp. 363-373, June 2010.  [Details]

SRI International
©2014 SRI International 333 Ravenswood Avenue, Menlo Park, CA 94025-3493
SRI International is an independent, nonprofit corporation. Privacy policy